Sequência não programada do post de ontem.

[E eu aqui, adiando um post muito bom sobre "A Busca" -
é que o tema tá quente.]

E Roberto X tem a mão pesada ( Microsoft Is Leaking Internal Documents to Make Us Think They Have a Plan). Chega a sugerir que o Ozzie anda fumando algo estranho, hehe. Mas, como eu no post anterior, concorda em linhas gerais com a visão apresentada pelo Ozzie naquele memo 'estranhamente' grampeado. Seguinte: o memo foi divulgado pq Bill e Ozzie quiseram. Trata-se da estratégia.. melhor: da enésima execução da mesmíssima estratégia "segura a boiada que eu tô chegando". O termo 'boiada' veio com o Longhorn (Berrante) pra ficar... Meus 2 cents...

Mas voltando ao Roberto X - Saca só:

... "Their homage to competition is hollow. Ray Ozzie is a very smart man, but if he thinks he can really pull this off, he's been smoking something. What's key here is Microsoft innate inability to do something right the first or even the second time. The nature of Internet services is that to be successful, they have to come at little or no cost and JUST PLAIN WORK. What Microsoft products or services would that historically describe? Certainly not Windows or Office or any of the other shrink-wrapped products. And the services? Hotmail has had more than its share of service problems compared to Yahoo Mail or GMail. MSN has had huge service and reliability problems. The fact is that Microsoft doesn't have a culture of quality or reliability and -- short of outsourcing EVERYTHING -- that isn't likely to change soon.

So here's what will happen. Microsoft will make a huge effort and get some good press toward the beginning. I'm not saying they don't mean this stuff, just that they don't really know WHAT it means. They'll attract developers and, by doing so, maybe take a small bite out of Open Source, but mainly they'll just sell stuff, which for them is good enough. Then, to maintain earnings growth, they'll turn on their developers. Finally, when things still don't work right, they'll turn on their customers, jacking up prices and milking the monopoly.

They can't help themselves. It's all they know. And booting Allchin for Ozzie won't change that fact."

...

"Ten years ago, Microsoft realized the importance of the Internet and revamped the company to meet the challenge and opportunity. Back then, it was well understood what needed to be done. Bill's Internet Tidal Wave memo at that time led to new business plans, new projects, and a new direction for Microsoft. As I read the recent Microsoft memos, they seem to be lacking in substance. Where's the beef? I can see only two possible explanations:

1) Microsoft's execs don't know what to do.

2) The memos are a facade.

Microsoft's core businesses are slowing down. Google could become a major threat to Microsoft. What harm could Google cause Microsoft? Microsoft's greatest business vulnerability is Office. If a competitive product (or service) hit the market it could further dilute Microsoft's earnings since they'd have to lower Office prices to compete. Another great threat is Google could become an organizing influence in the Open Source world. They could guide the Open Source community and it could become a greater threat to Microsoft.

If I were Microsoft and afraid of Google, I think I'd try to figure out what they are going to do and how. These Microsoft memos look like a plan to do the same thing Microsoft "thinks" Google will be doing. By publically stating their plans and putting those plans in the hands of Wall Street, Microsoft is giving the perception they are doing the same things as Google, so Microsoft will be as good an investment as Google.

But what if Google isn't doing what Microsoft thinks it is? I personally think Google's plan is bigger than Microsoft can even imagine, and Microsoft tends to think big. I'll explain this next week."

Artigo integral do Roberto X aqui. Já já (antes dele), brincarei de adivinhar suas adivinhações sobre o Google (aquele artigo sobre "A Busca" que citei ali em cima).

Mas é complicado concorrer com alguém que diz que em breve a MS pode tornar o Windows totalmente grátis.