Meu senso de urgência (gasp.. hehe) me torna rápido e rasteiro (no pior sentido mesmo - tanto que a Ceila me rotulou: mineirinho anti-MS) em meus julgamentos. Sigo acreditando que o (20º?) atraso do Vista é só uma questão de incompetência e bagunça mesmo. Mas não deixei de me divertir com as teorias do Roberto X, a melhor fonte de provocações do mundo de TI (depois do graffiti - hehe10x!). Saca só:

Vista Delay Theory Number One: It's the xBox, Stupid. With Sony having just bailed on its own Christmas 2006 introduction for the PlayStation 3, Microsoft wants to make Christmas 2006 solely about its xBox360. Screw the PC makers, they can just sell more boxes in the January quarter. The timing in this case is based solely on Sony's announcement a few days before.

Vista Delay Theory Number Two: Allchin Refuses to Leave the Building. When Vista ships, Windows co-presidente Jim Allchin retires from Microsoft. Maybe Allchin doesn't want to retire just yet. So Vista needs a little more polishing. Of course there is nothing to back this up, yet why does it sound plausible? Why now? Who knows? Who cares?

Vista Delay Theory Number Three: Punish the OEMs. Much of Microsoft power comes down to its near-total control of its hardware OEMs. If you read some of the Microsoft anti-trust materials, there seemed to be a continuing theme of Bill Gates threatening to not renew some big company's OEM license, like he would really shut down Compaq. It was such an effective weapon that it never had to actually be used, but that left a thousand other cuts to inflict just to be sure those OEMs didn't become complacent and start thinking that they ran their own businesses. So why not delay Vista by a couple months just to remind this dwindling group just who is still the sheriff in town? It ruins what would normally be the best quarter of the year, but guarantees the next quarter will set records. Why announce it now? So the companies can reset their production quotas and get ready to help sell xBox360s.

Vista Delay Theory Number Four (my personal favorite): Punish Steve Jobs. Microsoft has found Windows XP runs fine on Apple's new Intel Macs, with sites like GearLog even publishing performance benchmarks for XP on the new MacBook Pro. Worried that the same fate might befall Windows Vista, Microsoft suddenly realizes that the new OS can't possibly be ready for production simply because it CAN run on Apple hardware, just like the good old days of MS-DOS 2.0 when the Redmond insider's motto was supposedly "DOS ain't done 'til Lotus won't run." (See this week's links for a Microsoft insider's debunking of this DOS 2.0 story.)

Chances are none of these theories are valid, but I can't imagine a single reader of this column who doesn't see any of them (and while we're at it why not ALL of them, since they add-up so nicely) as being at least plausible. This includes readers who actually work for Microsoft. That says something terrible about Microsoft's corporate character or at least our perceptions of it. I'm working on another story on Microsoft's (lack of) character that's far bigger and more disturbing than this and loaded with real facts. It might be ready for next week or may still need a bit more work, but it's coming soon. And it will be shocking.


Realmente. São todas plausíveis:

1. Como eu já disse anteriormente, o xBox pode tornar obsoletos os micros caseiros. Depende só da visão (estratégia) do BillU, e de mais nada. Fazer com que as vendas de natal sejam um embate direto do xBox com o PS3 (Sony), sem distrações (como o Vista), é uma estratégia inteligente.
2. Sem comentários.
3. Só punir os OEMs? Ou testar o mercado e ver o quão viável é o item 1 acima?
4. Punir o Steve Jobs? Acho que é 'cutucar onça com vara (chifre) curto'. Mas a história é interessante.

O fato é que, no meio de tantas possíveis 'punições', os microsofties diretamente envolvidos na bagunça querem mesmo é a punição (cabeças rolando) de alguns de seus 'líderes', começando por Ballmer e Allchin. Deveriam incluir o engraçadinho que teve a infeliz idéia de lançar um concurso pra ver quem adivinha a data de lançamento do Vista.

Well... resta-nos aguardar a tal revelação bombástica (parece o Avalone, hehe - exclamação!) sobre o (desvio de) caráter da MS, prometida pelo Roberto X.