Ontem eu arrisquei um chute: até 2006 a MS vai perder 15% do mercado desktop. Vou replicar aqui um trecho surrupiado da coluna de David Berlind de ontem:

" The question isn't about what desktop Linux will do to Windows. It's about what a $50-per-seat business productivity contract -- which, in addition to JDS (Java Desktop System), Novell has helped to legitimize in introducing NLD (Novell Linux Desktop) -- will do to Microsoft. Forget what's under the hood. If a solution delivers productivity reliably and securely, if it's manageable, if it costs less than $100 a seat (even on an annual subscription basis), and if Novell, Sun, and others (for example, IBM, which just launched a sub-$100 express version of its Lotus Workplace client productivity offering) end up in blood bath to prove who can do a better job delivering that contract and there's nuclear desktop fallout, then the majority of that fallout will be felt where there's something to lose and that's Redmond -- particularly if Microsoft doesn't respond."

A MS responderá? Ballmer já anda falando de WinXPLight por menos de US$50 e Office por US$2,50 (em países 'pobres', como a Índia). Aqui no Brasil rola um comercial de TV (com uma estranhíssima edição na última fala do garoto-propaganda) que mira as pequenas empresas. Outras iniciativas parecidas vão pipocar em 2005, com certeza.

Pergunto: Mkt basta? Pacotes de produtos 'podados' são a solução?
Seguinte: só reviso meu chute prá cima.